The Black Swan and the Rat Race

I like the randomness that produces the texture of life, the positive accidents, the potential gifts you do not have to pay for them.


I worry less about small failures, more about large, which are potentially terminal. I worry far more about the stock market, particularly the “safe” blue chip stocks, than do about very low risk Algorithmic-Trading. The latter offer no surprises since you know how volatile they are as well as can limit your drawdown by investing smaller amounts.

The monday 1929 Black Swan in the stock market
1929 spx crashed


Moreover, i am very aggressive when i can gain exposure to positive Black-Swan, and very conservative when i am under threat from a negative Black-Swan. In finance, people use flimsy theories to manage their risks, and they fantasize about wild ideas…

Snub your destiny, when missing a train is painless –
In refusing to run to catch trains, i have felt the valuable of elegance in behavior, a sense of being in control of my time, and my life. Missing a train is only painful if you run after it. Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expected from you is the only painfully if that is what you are looking for.

It is more difficult to be a loser in a game you set-up yourself. In Black Swan term, it means that you are exposed to the unexpected events only if you let it to control you !


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